Aug 06, 2011

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",Alberto,AO,Beryl,Bud,Carlotta,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Tropical,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropical Storm Alberto.,Tropics,Tropics Alberto Two-E,Weather,Winter

The National Hurricane Center has re-classified Emily as a tropical cyclone east of South Florida, over the Bahamas as of 5pm EDT. After dissipation over Hispaniola the system re-organized today and has been bringing squally weather to the Bahamas for most of the day. Radar, Satellite, and Aircraft confirmed a closed circulation at the surface, and thus Emily is re-born as a tropical depression. At this time there are no major impacts expected within the US. There will be some heavy showers in South Florida but the overall depression should move east out into the Atlantic before dissipating. It may briefly re-gain tropical storm strength.

Aug 04, 2011

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",Alberto,AO,Beryl,Bud,Carlotta,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Tropical,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropical Storm Alberto.,Tropics,Tropics Alberto Two-E,Weather,Winter

After Emily was starting to look more organized this morning it appears it may be falling apart. It looks like despite the westward movement the storm has hung around Hispaniola for too long and that the circulation is being disrupted. Some dry air to the north of the storm may also be factoring in at this time. In fact recent obs suggest we could be looking at a tropical wave as opposed to a closed low very soon (if not already).

Aug 03, 2011

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",Alberto,AO,Beryl,Bud,Carlotta,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Tropical,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropical Storm Alberto.,Tropics,Tropics Alberto Two-E,Weather,Winter

In a classic example of wind shear inhibiting a tropical system, Emily’s center has become exposed to the west of the deepest convection. If this trend continues it is likely the storm will struggle to make it past the high terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba to re-organize. Most of the tropical storm conditions are displaced to the north and east of the center.

Aug 03, 2011

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",Alberto,AO,Beryl,Bud,Carlotta,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Tropical,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropical Storm Alberto.,Tropics,Tropics Alberto Two-E,Weather,Winter

Early this morning as of 5am there has been little overall change in Emily’s strength or structure. The storm is expected to brush Puerto Rico before making landfall in Hispaniola this afternoon and tonight. Thereafter the forecast becomes more uncertain due to the expected land interaction and then a spread in the model guidance beyond day 3.

Aug 02, 2011

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",Alberto,AO,Beryl,Bud,Carlotta,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Tropical,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropical Storm Alberto.,Tropics,Tropics Alberto Two-E,Weather,Winter

Tropical Storm Emily has temporarily stalled out which may be an indication that is trying to re-organize in the Caribbean. Interestingly as of 11am the storm looks the best it has yet on Satellite but recon has yet to find a well organized system. One thing to watch for is perhaps a re-generation of a circulation center under the deepest convection (thunderstorms). If this happens some slow intensification could then result. Either way Emily has been fighting a bit of dry air and some unfavorable winds aloft. For now she remains a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph max sustained winds.

Aug 02, 2011

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",Alberto,AO,Beryl,Bud,Carlotta,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Tropical,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropical Storm Alberto.,Tropics,Tropics Alberto Two-E,Weather,Winter

This morning Emily continues with little change in strength and remains a minimal tropical storm. It appears some dry air is inhibiting any real intensification and there are some unfavorable winds aloft. The question is will it survive? The answer reamains unknown. The main issue if it overcomes its current environment is Hispaniola as mentioned in previous posts. Current intensity guidance suggests that if it does it will not attain hurricane strength as opposed to last night. The track now keeps it just east of Florida during the weekend which is a trend to the right from previous thinking. At this point I would suggest residents from FL to the Carolinas should keep an eye on Emily just in case.

Aug 01, 2011

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",Alberto,AO,Beryl,Bud,Carlotta,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Tropical,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropical Storm Alberto.,Tropics,Tropics Alberto Two-E,Weather,Winter

This will be a quick update for the overnight. It appears Emily is still on track to make landfall in Hispaniola on Wednesday. This again will be the key. If the circulation somehow survives the land interaction with high mountainous terrain the system could eventually near Florida on Saturday. As of tonight the official forecast has shifted north with the system eventually nearing Vero Beach. It is important to remember this will likely shift again in future advisories. Significant forecast changes are entirely possible, especially as Emily encounters The Dominican Republic and Haiti. Stay Tuned!

Aug 01, 2011

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",Alberto,AO,Beryl,Bud,Carlotta,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Tropical,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropical Storm Alberto.,Tropics,Tropics Alberto Two-E,Weather,Winter

Well there is no shortage of action it seems as we enter the heart of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season. After a bit of a wait a a disturbance near the Leeward Islands finally got its act together. The storm will first threaten Puerto Rico and perhaps the US Virgin Islands in the next day or so. The questions of what to expect begin thereafter.

Emily is currently expected to approach Hispaniola in the early morning hours of Wednesday. As it crosses this rugged island (Dominican Rep. and Haiti) the circulation may be significantly disrupted. If this occurs and the storm can’t re-organize that will be the end of the story. If the storm holds in any form it could re-strengthen and perhaps near South Florida this weekend as hurricane. Either way it is a low confidence outlook at this time. It would be advisable to start thinking about your hurricane disaster plan if you are in the potential path of the storm and to keep up with the latest updates. Preparation and not panic is the best course of action.