Aug 30, 2011

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",Alberto,AO,Beryl,Bud,Carlotta,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Tropical,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropical Storm Alberto.,Tropics,Tropics Alberto Two-E,Weather,Winter

In the wake of Hurricane Irene it quickly became apparent inland flooding would become the major story. This was especially the case in New Jersey and Vermont where numerous rivers exceeded record levels. At one point all but 2 roads in Vermont had closures somewhere along them. Most tragic is there are now 41 deaths reported, most coming from the aforementioned flooding.

As if these impacts were not dramatic enough another system has developed near the Cape Verde Islands and is tracking west across the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Katia is expected to become a hurricane, and potentially a major storm as it crosses the ocean. It is too far out to say exactly where this system will track but it is not impossible for it to eventually impact land. Stay tuned!

Aug 25, 2011

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",Alberto,AO,Beryl,Bud,Carlotta,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Tropical,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropical Storm Alberto.,Tropics,Tropics Alberto Two-E,Weather,Winter

As of 5am EDT this morning Irene remains a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale with 115 mph winds. As it continues through the Northwestern Bahamas hurricane and tropical storm watches have been issued by the NHC for the Carolina Coast. This means residents within these areas should already be preparing for the storm’s arrival by Saturday.

In terms of the track forecast if anything that has shifted slightly west overnight, but overall the reasoning remains relatively unchanged. Farther up the coast, for the Northeast, the strength of an upper level trough will determine just exactly who gets the worst of Irene. Either way this storm still has the potential to make a serious impact along the Eastern Seaboard, and it would be wise to make sure you are prepared now just in case the storm arrives on your doorstep.

Aug 24, 2011

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",Alberto,AO,Beryl,Bud,Carlotta,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Tropical,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropical Storm Alberto.,Tropics,Tropics Alberto Two-E,Weather,Winter

As of 8am EDT this morning Irene has been upgraded to major hurricane status with 115 mph max sustained winds. This is a category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. As previous forecasts have stated this was expected, but this is also very bad news for the Bahamas as the storm rolls through the islands today.

In terms of US impacts and track the forecast has changed little overnight. The eastward trend in successive model runs has slowed with the main consensus still focused on the NC coast for either a close pass or direct landfall. Thereafter the storm may actually impact the Northeast. At this point residents along most of the Eastern Seaboard should pay close attention to the progress of Irene. One interesting note is a key upper level feature that may influence the storm track will only be sampled in reality for the first time today. This will be important in terms of forecast confidence once model guidance takes that into account.

Aug 23, 2011

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",Alberto,AO,Beryl,Bud,Carlotta,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Tropical,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropical Storm Alberto.,Tropics,Tropics Alberto Two-E,Weather,Winter

As of 5pm EDT Hurricane Irene was found to have 90 mph max sustained winds as opposed to the earlier 100 mph. This is the result of Hurricane Hunter Aircraft observations. One wonders if a close pass to Hispaniola was a factor in this or earlier wind shear from the southwest. Either way it is likely the storm will re-gain its strength and become a major hurricane in the next couple of days.

In terms of the forecast track things have shifted slightly east once again. It still looks like a serious impact on NC’s eastern shore but I would also pay close attention farther up the coast (as far as Southern New England). Stay tuned.