Jul 29, 2011

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",AO,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Season 2011,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropics,Weather,Winter

Well it appears Don fell apart much quicker than originally anticipated upon coming ashore in South Texas tonight. Unfortunately the beneficial rains many had hoped for in drought stricken areas were not to be. At this point no major impacts are expected and no more blog entries will be written on this storm as it quickly dissipates.

Jul 29, 2011

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",AO,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Season 2011,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropics,Weather,Winter

Don is on track as expected and headed for South Texas. Rainbands have already moved onshore and the main rain shield is close behind. In this case many Texans are hoping for the rain as it will be beneficial with an exceptional drought ongoing in many areas. Perhaps one unfortunate sidebar is the fact most the rain is the south of the center and will enter the southern tip of the state and northern Mexico. As for the winds they currently remain at 50 mph max sustained which won’t cause significant damage in that regard. Current projections have the center coming in close to Baffin Bay tonight.

Jul 29, 2011

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",AO,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Season 2011,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropics,Weather,Winter

Everything appears to be similar to early this morning in regard to Don’s track toward the coast. Interestingly despite the winds being held the same the satellite presentation has improved with the system. There is some improved outflow and increased convection closer to the center. Wind shear had been inhibiting this earlier. There may some slight intensification just prior to landfall but hurricane status is not expected to be attained. Current projections take Don inland between Baffin Bay and Port Mansfield late tonight.

Jul 29, 2011

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",AO,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Season 2011,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropics,Weather,Winter

Don is maintaining its intensity with 50 mph max sustained winds as of early this morning. The storm is not overly well organized due to dry air intrusion and wind shear aloft. With this in mind any intensification will be slow and Don is not expected to become a hurricane prior to landfall.

Perhaps the most important development has been the southward shift in forecast landfall. The ridge continues to be the key feature in determining where Don will come ashore. The system has jogged more to the west overnight indicating a more southerly track as the upper ridge holds strong and induces this movement. Current landfall projections have Don coming ashore late tonight into very early Saturday, between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Jul 28, 2011

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",AO,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Season 2011,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropics,Weather,Winter

Tropical Storm Don continues on its path towards the Texas coast this afternoon. There is little change from earlier reasoning in that system is still being steered by an upper ridge to its north. The model consensus has shifted back to the south and as a result the official forecast once again brings the center on land close to Corpus Christi in the overnight hours of Friday into Saturday. It appears as of models may be struggling a bit to handle subtle changes in the ridge and this is resulting in some oscillation. With this in mind I would expect the forecast track to be adjusted again in future updates. Remember it is important to focus on the storm as a whole rather than just the center. In this case the primary concern will be heavy rainfall as Don is expected to be a TS when landfall occurs. Rain could occur well away from the center itself and well inland.

Jul 28, 2011

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",AO,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Season 2011,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropics,Weather,Winter

As of the 7/28 11am update from the National Hurricane Center the Hurricane Hunter aircraft found Tropical Storm Don slightly stronger with max sustained winds of 45 mph. The storm continues on a west-northwest to northwesterly course towards the Texas and as a result some of the tropical storm watches have been upgraded to warnings.

Perhaps the greatest change this morning is the thinking is the storm will make landfall a slightly farther north as compared to previous forecasts. Why the small shift in this direction? Remember last night it was said the upper ridge was key to steering this system. The current thinking is the center of this ridge will push far enough east (towards the Carolinas) and this will allow Don to creep a bit farther north as it will be closer to that feature’s western flank. In other words the upper winds will be from more of southeasterly direction and there will be less resistance to a northward jog.

Remember it is important to remember a storm consists of more than just its center and the primary concern in this case will be heavy rainfall. It is likely some of that rain will occur well away from the center. All residents in the warned areas, or who are under watches should be prepared as the exact point of landfall is far from etched in stone at this point. Stay tuned!

Jul 27, 2011

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",AO,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Season 2011,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropics,Weather,Winter

Tropical Storm Don continues as expected to the west-northwest. As a result tropical storm watches have been issued for much of the TX coast. Unfortunately there is considerable spread in the model guidance when it comes to the exact point of landfall. This is why the watch area is large. It all rides on the strength of an upper ridge in the Southern US. The storm will be steered by this feature as it continues to bring unrelenting heat from much of the Plains eastward to the Eastern Seaboard. If this ridge weakens more than expected the storm may trend farther north. If it holds strong or shifts west Don will take a more southerly track. This is the main thing to keep an eye on as the system moves through the Gulf.

Jul 27, 2011

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",AO,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Season 2011,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropics,Weather,Winter

The hurricane hunter aircraft has found a closed circulation and high enough sustained winds (40 mph) to classify what was Invest 90L as Tropical Storm Don. This system will likely impact the TX coast directly Friday into Saturday. Unfortunately current model guidance shows a considerable spread as to the exact point of landfall so all coastal residents of TX should keep an eye on this system.

It is important to remember intensity forecasts are often not nearly as good as track predictions. The official forecast has Don making landfall as a strong tropical storm but the general rule of thumb is to prepare for one category higher than expected. In this case it would be best to be ready for a category 1 hurricane. Stay tuned for future updates!

Jul 19, 2011

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",AO,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Season 2011,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropics,Weather,Winter

Bret certainly put residents of the Atlantic Seaboard on notice that the hurricane season is alive and well. However in this case most will see it as fortunate that this is a storm for the fishes. The tropical storm is now well east of FL and heading north-northeast. This system is also encountering a more hostile environment in the atmosphere and is weakening as a result.

On a side note if one is interested in seeing a potential textbook Hurricane Dora in the East Pacific is expected to reach major hurricane status (cat 3 or higher) by tomorrow. This system is not expected to impact land so it should make for some great satellite imagery. It will also bring a smile to surfer’s faces from CA through Mexico in the next few days as it generates large swells.

Jul 18, 2011

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",AO,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Season 2011,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropics,Weather,Winter

Bret was located just northwest of Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas at 5am this morning. He is slowly getting his act together with 50 mph max sustained winds. This was found through direct observation by Hurricane Hunter Aircraft. With this said the big question is will it impact the US directly? At this time forecasts keep it just offshore.

The reason it will likely miss the US this time is the position of a ridge of high pressure to its southeast. This feature will steer the system to the north. The storm will then feel the effects of the prevailing westerlies as it moves higher in latitude.

Despite the official forecasts one should still keep an eye on the latest updates as they come. Tropical systems can behave unexpectedly at times.