Sep 28, 2012

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",Alberto,AO,Beryl,Bud,Carlotta,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Tropical,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropical Storm Alberto.,Tropics,Tropics Alberto Two-E,Weather,Winter

Beryl came ashore near Jacksonville Beach, FL overnight and packed a bigger punch than initially expected wind wise (70 mph max sustained winds officially). Fortunately damage was limited to trees and powerlines and perhaps superficial structural damage (especially to older outbuildings etc.). At the peak 37,000 lost power in the Jacksonville area. Moving forward Beryl’s main threat will now be heavy rainfall as the circulation remains over land through early Wed.morning. Once the center re-emerges off SC’s coast it is likely to regain tropical storm strength. Fortunately it will then be moving northeastward and out to sea. One interesting note will be to see if Beryl ever reached Hurricane status before landfall when NHC has time to analyze the event.

Elsewhere the basins have fallen quiet worldwide as the official hurricane season begins later this week in the Atlantic and East Pacific.

Sep 01, 2012

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",Alberto,AO,Beryl,Bud,Carlotta,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Tropical,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropical Storm Alberto.,Tropics,Tropics Alberto Two-E,Weather,Winter

The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season (and East Pacific) begins today, June 1st 2012. Interestingly we have already seen two named systems, and one landfall in the Atlantic basin prior to this official beginning. It will be interesting to see what lies ahead.

Dr. Gray, famous for seasonal hurricane prediction, expects 13 total named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 being major storms. This is only a slight tick above a normal year. This forecast, however, does not indicate how many will make landfall. With that said odds o a major storm impacting land are pegged at 28% for the Gulf and East Coasts and 39% in the Caribbean.

Remember it only takes 1 storm to have a significant impact. If you live in a hurricane prone area it is a good time to take a look at your preparedness plan. Check with local authorities for hazards specific to your location. Stay safe and enjoy the summer!

Aug 25, 2012

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",Alberto,AO,Beryl,Bud,Carlotta,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Tropical,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropical Storm Alberto.,Tropics,Tropics Alberto Two-E,Weather,Winter

Debby continues to meander in the northeastern Gulf Of Mexico and plague the FL Panhandle and Peninsula. As expected it has also been a nightmare for forecasters with weak steering currents aloft leaving a vast array of computer guidance solutions.

The storm has been losing strength this morning due to dry air intrusion and upwelling of cooler waters, as it has been spinning nearly stationary over the same area for days. The new forecast slowly brings it in across the northern FL Peninsula in a weakened state (perhaps as a depression). Regardless of classification the threat for very heavy rainfall and flooding continues, along with tornadoes over the FL Peninsula.  The exact track of the storm center is of little consequence at this point as most of the weather is well to the east of it.

Aug 24, 2012

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",Alberto,AO,Beryl,Bud,Carlotta,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Tropical,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropical Storm Alberto.,Tropics,Tropics Alberto Two-E,Weather,Winter

Tropical Storm Debby continues to churn in the Gulf and has picked up some intensity this morning with max sustained winds up to 60 mph. Wind shear has continued to keep the worst conditions north and east of the center, and FL has been feeling some of these impacts. The system continues a slow northward drift toward the FL Panhandle making forecasters nervous.

With the above in mind the worst aspect of this storm is low forecast confidence. Debby is a Debby downer in this regard as preparation and decision making time may be severely limited, ahead of tropical storm conditions, especially in the FL panhandle if the northward movement continues. Tropical Storm warnings have been expanded east into FL and major shifts in the NHC forecast track can’t be ruled out. Their current forecast takes the storm west toward TX.

The reason for the low confidence is the storm is in a position where it could slip between two ridges of high pressure and move northeast across FL. It may also slip more westward (in line with this mornings NHC forecasts) if a ridge over the Plains builds far enough to the southeast and does not allow the storm to pass through the weakness. Stay tuned and if you have interests along the Gulf Coast please continue to monitor this system closely!

Aug 16, 2012

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",Alberto,AO,Beryl,Bud,Carlotta,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Tropical,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropical Storm Alberto.,Tropics,Tropics Alberto Two-E,Weather,Winter

Carlotta has quickly weakened to a Tropical Depression in the mountains of southern MX. Rugged terrain quickly breaks up tropical systems in most cases and this is no exception. It is important to note that heavy rain may persist, especially in portions of the higher terrain as remnants are expected to meander in the area for a few days. This may result in mud slides and significant flash flooding. At this time it looks like the worst impacts will remain east of Acapulco.

Aug 15, 2012

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",Alberto,AO,Beryl,Bud,Carlotta,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Tropical,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropical Storm Alberto.,Tropics,Tropics Alberto Two-E,Weather,Winter

As of 5pm EDT (2pm PDT) Carlotta has attained category 2 status with 105 mph max sustained winds. The storm may continue to intensify and may touch category 3 status this evening (although official forecasts keep it just below that). The satellite presentation is impressive with a well structured eye and eyewall. Hurricane Hunter Aircraft investigating the storm confirmed the status of Carlotta. The northern eyewall is expected to rake the southern MX Coast tonight into the weekend. Stay tuned!

Aug 15, 2012

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",Alberto,AO,Beryl,Bud,Carlotta,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Tropical,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropical Storm Alberto.,Tropics,Tropics Alberto Two-E,Weather,Winter

The active start to the 2012 East Pacific Hurricane season continues as Tropical Storm Carlotta churns toward the southern MX coast. The system is expected to reach hurricane strength later today (likely soon after this is posted). Conditions will be favorable enough for steady strengthening until land interaction begins weakening the system later on Saturday. The storm is not forecast to make actual landfall but the center will come close to the coast late tonight through the weekend. It is also expected to slow down and meander just offshore. Places along the southern MX coast could see an extended period of rough weather from the storm’s northern side. This includes strong wind and very heavy rainfall. Interests in Acapulco should closely monitor Carlotta’s progress.

Aug 14, 2012

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",Alberto,AO,Beryl,Bud,Carlotta,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Tropical,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropical Storm Alberto.,Tropics,Tropics Alberto Two-E,Weather,Winter

In the last few years, it has become easy to view on the Internet the forecast tracks of tropical cyclones produced by the various numerical computer models that simulate the atmosphere.  Early Alert provides some of these forecasts as part of its graphics display (example below)

Some may ask why there are so many models used to forecast tropical cyclones, which can be confusing at times.   Why don’t we just use the model that produces the best forecasts?  The simple answer is there is no one perfect model of the atmosphere.  The interaction between tropical cyclones and their surrounding environment is very complex and often occurs in areas with few direct measurements of the air from within and just outside the storm.  Some models will produce better forecasts than the others depending on their strength, size, shape, location or time of year.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are aware of these specific characteristics of the models and will weigh one model’s forecast over another depending on the situation, then produce the “official” forecast based on this expertise.

These models have been developed by various scientific establishments in the United States and other countries.  The models are continually being refined and upgraded based on the priorities and resources of the individual developers.  These types of models are known as Global Circulation Models (GCMs), which simulate the behavior of the atmosphere around the world.  Examples of GCMs include the GFS from the NOAA/NWS Center for Environmental Prediction, GFDL from the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab, NOGAPS from the US Navy, the ECMWF from Europe, CMC/GEM from Canada, and UKMET from the UK.

As noted above, there are different characteristics of each model pertaining to the tropical cyclone forecasts.  These global circulation models are not set in stone, but typically undergo changes to incorporate the latest improvements in science and computer technology.  Therefore, notions of how one model performed over another will not necessarily apply from one year to the next.

Currently, the GCMs most heavily weighted by meteorologists for predictions of tropical cyclones tend to be the GFS and the ECMWF.  In May of this year, a major change to the way data from tropical cyclones is handled by the GFS model was executed.  This appears to have greatly improved the forecast tracks as demonstrated in the cases of Debby and Ernesto.

Again, even though one model shows superior performance over another in one or two instances that may not always be the case.  Know that forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are most knowledgeable in model characteristics and any recent changes to model performance.  The official NHC forecast highlighted in Early Alert graphics is the one on which plans should be made.  But if you are in the habit of checking the various forecast tracks on the Internet, and want to acquire your own sense of confidence in what is happening, look for trends in the entire set of forecast tracks.  If the tracks are clustering closer together, your confidence in the forecast should be higher.  If the tracks are spread apart, your confidence level should be lower.  Also, a general shift in the entire cluster of forecast tracks should give you a better sense of and impending change with the projected track of the storm.

RFG

May 27, 2012

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",Alberto,AO,Beryl,Bud,Carlotta,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Tropical,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropical Storm Alberto.,Tropics,Tropics Alberto Two-E,Weather,Winter

In what has certainly been an unusually active pre-season for the tropics the latest is Subtropical Storm Beryl, off the southeastern US coast. This system has 50 mph max sustained winds and is classified subtropical because it has yet to fully acquire all tropical characteristics. For the observer on the ground it doesn’t make much difference when the storm arrives.

The storm is expected to make landfall tonight near the GA/FL border or slightly south in an unusual and rare approach from the east and northeast. There may be some scattered power outages and localized flooding due to heavy rainfall but as of now a major impact is not expected. The storm will then turn back northeast, likely as a depression, and move back into open waters away from land by midweek.

May 25, 2012

Tags:"Tropical Storm Bret","Tropical Storm Don","Tropical Storm Don" Tropics Weather Meteorology.,"Tropical Storm Emily",Alberto,AO,Beryl,Bud,Carlotta,Earthquake,East Pacific,El Nino,Hurricane Irene,Hurricane Season 2011,Hurricane Season 2012,La Nina,Meteorology,NAO,Tropical,Tropical Depression Thirteen,Tropical Storm Alberto.,Tropics,Tropics Alberto Two-E,Weather,Winter

Hurricane Bud briefly underwent rapid intensification to a category 3 with 115 mph max sustained winds. This however didn’t last long as the storm is now interacting with land and cooler waters. Bud is back down to a category 1 with 80 mph max sustained winds as it begins to near the MX coast as of  11am PDT. It is becoming apparent that the likely greatest concern will be inland flooding and mudslides as torrential rains drench elevated terrain. The storm will then rapidly dissipate over the weekend.

In the Atlantic all eyes are on Invest 94L northwest of the Bahamas as it stands a good chance of developing into a tropical system. It is certainly not what Memorial Day weekend travelers would like to see, but it is a possibility. Chances stand at 70% within the next 48 hours. If this storm does develop it could bring soaking rains to GA and SC. Stay tuned!